Forecasted Win Probability
Marcy Kaptur*
Derek Merrin
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marcy Kaptur | 48.00% |
| Derek Merrin | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Derek Merrin | 47.00% |
| Marcy Kaptur | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| David Gedert | 3.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marcy Kaptur | $4,303,416 | $1,260,674 | $3,050 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Derek Merrin | $1,337,181 | $902,389 | $44,352 | $64,500 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
