Forecasted Win Probability
Max Miller*
Brian Poindexter
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Poindexter | 43.00% |
| Max Miller | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 22.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Poindexter | 47.00% |
| Max Miller | 33.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Poindexter | 54.00% |
| Max Miller | 46.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Poindexter | $603,156 | $290,865 | $775,997 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Max Miller | $2,142,562 | $937,959 | - | $345,417 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
