Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Carey*
Don Leonard
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Leonard | 46.00% |
| Mike Carey | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Carey | 37.00% |
| Don Leonard | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 20.00% |
| Brennan Barrington | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Carey | 45.00% |
| Don Leonard | 40.00% |
| Brennan Barrington | 3.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Don Leonard | $606,658 | $354,256 | $11,210 | $321,869 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Mike Carey | $3,299,679 | $1,404,260 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
