Forecasted Win Probability
Michael Turner*
Kristina Knickerbocker
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 49.00% |
| Kristina Knickerbocker | 42.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 48.00% |
| Kristina Knickerbocker | 41.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kristina Knickerbocker | $362,666 | $237,506 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Michael Turner | $894,595 | $768,735 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
