Forecasted Win Probability
Greg Landsman*
Eric Conroy
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Greg Landsman | 46.50% |
| Eric Conroy | 42.70% |
| Other Option | 10.80% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Greg Landsman | $4,633,250 | $1,203,152 | $11,179 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Eric Conroy | $1,419,053 | $975,457 | $286,610 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
