Forecasted Win Probability
David Rouzer*
Kimberly Hardy
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| David Rouzer | 45.00% |
| Kimberly Hardy | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Maad Abu-Ghazalah | 3.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kimberly Hardy | $376,110 | $351,028 | $508 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 David Rouzer | $1,990,423 | $1,124,461 | - | $169 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
