Forecasted Win Probability
Gregory Murphy*
Raymond Smith
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gregory Murphy | 44.00% |
| Raymond Smith | 41.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gregory Murphy | $2,357,956 | $1,243,599 | - | $326,560 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Raymond Smith | $223,119 | $137,467 | $126 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
