Forecasted Win Probability
Tim Moore*
LaKesha Womack
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tim Moore | 48.00% |
| LaKesha Womack | 40.00% |
| Other | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LaKesha Womack | $24,888 | $26,124 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Tim Moore | $1,538,952 | $880,526 | $80,948 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
