Forecasted Win Probability
Jennifer Balkcom
James Ager
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| James Ager | 47.00% |
| Jennifer Balkcom | 44.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| James Ager | 45.00% |
| Chuck Edwards | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Ager | $5,401,765 | $3,760,602 | $270,837 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Jennifer Balkcom | $355,135 | $60,050 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
