Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 16, 2:02 PM
Don Davis*
Laurie Buckhout
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Laurie Buckhout | 43.00% |
| Don Davis | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Tom Bailey | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | 51.00% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 41.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | 47.00% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 39.00% |
| Tom Bailey | 8.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laurie Buckhout | $4,601,632 | $2,769,524 | $829,003 | $42,116 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Don Davis | $4,287,386 | $987,862 | $147,905 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
