Forecasted Win Probability
Nick Langworthy*
Aaron Gies
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Langworthy | 52.00% |
| Aaron Gies | 35.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Langworthy | 54.00% |
| Aaron Gies | 33.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Langworthy | $2,622,573 | $1,152,639 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Aaron Gies | $227,174 | $203,235 | $150 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
