Forecasted Win Probability
Pat Ryan*
Jackie Auringer
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Pat Ryan | 52.00% |
| Jackie Auringer | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Pat Ryan | 53.00% |
| Jackie Auringer | 39.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pat Ryan | $4,723,627 | $1,774,339 | $906 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Jackie Auringer | $89,698 | $28,443 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
