Forecasted Win Probability
Cait Conley
Michael Lawler*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Michael Lawler | 50.00% |
| Cait Conley | 47.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cait Conley | 47.90% |
| Michael Lawler | 45.60% |
| Other Option | 6.50% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Michael Lawler | 50.00% |
| Cait Conley | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cait Conley | $4,317,457 | $2,998,301 | $1,751,352 | $1,500,000 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
