Forecasted Win Probability
Teresa Fernandez*
Martin Zamora
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Teresa Fernandez | 53.00% |
| Martin Zamora | 39.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teresa Leger Fernandez | $1,249,949 | $990,899 | $10 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Martin Zamora | $440,623 | $198,054 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
