Forecasted Win Probability
Gabriel Vasquez*
Gregory Cunningham
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Vasquez | 48.00% |
| Gregory Cunningham | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Vasquez | 46.00% |
| Gregory Cunningham | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gregory Cunningham | $1,347,081 | $578,893 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Gabriel Vasquez | $3,784,102 | $1,444,484 | $6,884 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
