Forecasted Win Probability
Rebecca Bennett
Thomas Kean*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Bennett | 47.00% |
| Thomas Kean | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Seamus O'Toole | 1.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tina Shah | 46.00% |
| Thomas Kean | 43.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Thomas Kean | $4,892,807 | $1,306,888 | - | $2,517 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Rebecca Bennett | $4,272,034 | $2,826,340 | $1,283,276 | $660,676 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
