Forecasted Win Probability
Chris Pappas
John Sununu
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 30% fundamentals, 45% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for New Hampshire US Senate were held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Pappas | |||
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How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | $24,617,290 | $20,579,285 | $1,188 | $728,415 | PRE-PRIMARY | 8/19/2026 |
| Chris Pappas | $22,604,241 | $17,634,832 | $1,188 | $518,165 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Chris Pappas | $19,093,310 | $15,083,732 | $1,188 | $2,833 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
| John Sununu | $4,124,582 | $1,104,788 | $2,158,922 | $130,636 | PRE-PRIMARY | 8/19/2026 |
| John Sununu | $3,662,252 | $989,605 | $1,937,919 | $130,636 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| John Sununu | $2,475,941 | $583,037 | $1,315,540 | $130,636 | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
