Forecasted Win Probability
Maggie Goodlander*
Lily Tang Williams
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Maggie Goodlander | 56.00% |
| Lily Tang Williams | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Robbie Mahrou | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Maggie Goodlander | 50.00% |
| Lily Tang Williams | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Maggie Goodlander | 50.00% |
| Lily Tang Williams | 31.00% |
| Other Option | 19.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lily Tang Williams | $1,377,170 | $844,004 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Maggie Goodlander | $4,155,360 | $1,512,294 | $150,000 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 8/19/2026 |
| Lily Tang Williams | $1,108,535 | $573,795 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
