Forecasted Win Probability
Denise Powell
Brinker Harding
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Denise Powell | 46.00% |
| Brinker Harding | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denise Powell | $2,668,287 | $1,670,897 | $3,035,272 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Brinker Harding | $1,900,540 | $851,918 | - | $16,568 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Denise Powell | $1,617,997 | $1,294,016 | $2,240,917 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/22/2026 |
| Brinker Harding | $1,279,187 | $630,501 | - | $1,767 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/22/2026 |
