Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Flood*
Chris Backemeyer
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chris Backemeyer | 43.00% |
| Mike Flood | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Flood | 44.00% |
| Austin Ahlman | 36.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Backemeyer | $592,233 | $301,622 | $10 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Mike Flood | $2,368,910 | $1,028,941 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
