Forecasted Win Probability
Kurt Alme
Seth Bodnar
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 39% fundamentals, 36% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Montana US Senate were held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Alme | |||
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How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alani Bankhead | $172,509 | $134,311 | $3,228,840 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
| Kurt Alme | $1,984,861 | $534,142 | $2,413,262 | $217,614 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
