Forecasted Win Probability
Troy Downing*
Brian Miller
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Troy Downing | 48.00% |
| Brian Miller | 26.00% |
| Michael Eisenhauer | 9.00% |
| Patrick McCracken | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Troy Downing | $2,127,927 | $1,588,993 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Troy Downing | $1,794,757 | $1,512,717 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Brian Miller | $19,174 | $14,573 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Brian Miller | $16,195 | $9,405 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
