Forecasted Win Probability
Aaron Flint
Sam Forstag
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | 45.90% |
| Sam Forstag | 45.40% |
| Nick Sheedy | 5.40% |
| Other Option | 3.40% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 47.00% |
| Aaron Flint | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Nick Sheedy | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 45.00% |
| Aaron Flint | 43.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Flint | $1,303,394 | $801,193 | $1,202,592 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Sam Forstag | $1,382,873 | $832,794 | $254,455 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
