Forecasted Win Probability
Ann Wagner*
Fred Wellman
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ann Wagner | 43.00% |
| Fred Wellman | 42.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ann Wagner | 44.00% |
| Fred Wellman | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fred Wellman | $1,155,880 | $913,662 | $2,540 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 Ann Wagner | $3,528,095 | $2,411,928 | - | $75 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
