Forecasted Win Probability
Matt Little
Eric Pratt
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Matt Little | 52.00% |
| Eric Pratt | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Matthew Klein | 42.60% |
| Eric Pratt | 41.50% |
| Other Option | 15.90% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Little | $923,277 | $796,236 | $405,405 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Tyler Kistner | $427,440 | $427,591 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
