Forecasted Win Probability
Brad Finstad*
Jake Johnson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | 46.00% |
| Brad Finstad | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | 47.00% |
| Brad Finstad | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brad Finstad | 52.00% |
| Jake Johnson | 42.00% |
| Other | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Johnson | $2,000,547 | $988,953 | $2,051 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
 Brad Finstad | $2,030,569 | $808,055 | - | $2,008 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
