Forecasted Win Probability
William Lawrence
Tom Barrett*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| William Lawrence | 49.00% |
| Tom Barrett | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Barrett | 46.00% |
| Bridget Brink | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bridget Brink | 46.00% |
| Tom Barrett | 45.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Barrett | $6,306,828 | $3,457,356 | $225,629 | $6,377 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 William Lawrence | $1,119,198 | $736,082 | $650,080 | $957,088 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
