Forecasted Win Probability
Bill Huizenga*
Sean McCann
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sean McCann | 47.00% |
| Bill Huizenga | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sean McCann | 48.00% |
| Bill Huizenga | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bill Huizenga | 48.00% |
| Sean McCann | 42.00% |
| Other | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bill Huizenga | $4,093,991 | $1,934,284 | $512,236 | $1,139,128 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 Sean McCann | $2,620,011 | $933,771 | $31,745 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
