Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 16, 2:02 PM
Christina Hines
Michael Bouchard
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Christina Hines | 45.00% |
| Michael Bouchard | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Christina Hines | 44.00% |
| Mike Bouchard | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christina Hines | $3,518,814 | $2,089,323 | $500,391 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Michael Bouchard | $2,357,307 | $971,064 | $156,740 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
