Forecasted Win Probability
Edward Markey*
John Deaton
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 57% fundamentals, 18% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Massachusetts US Senate were held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | – | ||
 | – | ||
| Markey | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Deaton | $1,648,104 | $977,429 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
| Edward Markey | $8,051,970 | $8,355,270 | $63,796 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 8/12/2026 |
