Forecasted Win Probability
Paul LePage
Matt Dunlap
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Matt Dunlap | 50.00% |
| Paul LePage | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Matt Dunlap | 51.00% |
| Paul LePage | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 49.00% |
| Matt Dunlap | 49.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paul LePage | $2,458,202 | $802,191 | $6,549 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Matt Dunlap | $1,205,432 | $976,783 | $100,903 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
