Forecasted Win Probability
Chellie Pingree*
Ronald Russell
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chellie Pingree | 57.00% |
| Ronald Russell | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chellie Pingree | $429,634 | $422,200 | $10 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Ronald Russell | $75,680 | $69,878 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
