Forecasted Win Probability
Ralph Alvarado
Zach Dembo
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 59% fundamentals, 16% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Zach Dembo | 47.00% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Zach Dembo | 48.00% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Zach Dembo | 42.00% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 20.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zach Dembo | $1,463,855 | $972,579 | $294,599 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Ralph Alvarado | $1,521,813 | $1,123,795 | $102,559 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
