Forecasted Win Probability
Roger Marshall*
Adam Hamilton
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 37% fundamentals, 38% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Kansas US Senate were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | |||
 | |||
| Hamilton | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall | $7,006,240 | $6,294,111 | $248,741 | $613 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
| Adam Hamilton | $4,169,078 | $2,438,457 | $3,241 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
