Forecasted Win Probability
Joe Mitchell
Lindsay James
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Lindsay James | 46.00% |
| Joe Mitchell | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Lindsay James | 36.00% |
| Joe Mitchell | 33.00% |
| Other Option | 31.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lindsay James | $1,628,201 | $872,363 | $54,310 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Joe Mitchell | $1,938,593 | $1,043,029 | $18,932 | $675,186 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
