Forecasted Win Probability
Christina Bohannan
Mariannette Miller-Meeks*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Christina Bohannan | 40.00% |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Michael Bridgford | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Christina Bohannan | 43.00% |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mariannette Miller-Meeks | $7,208,271 | $2,890,534 | $420,434 | $679,785 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Christina Bohannan | $7,051,745 | $1,733,644 | $46,380 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
