Forecasted Win Probability
Victoria Spartz*
J.D. Ford
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Victoria Spartz | 48.00% |
| J.D. Ford | 46.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.D. Ford | $582,087 | $267,434 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Victoria Spartz | $1,327,228 | $1,355,274 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
