Forecasted Win Probability
Juliana Stratton
Don Tracy
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Juliana Stratton | 49.00% |
| Don Tracy | 36.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Don Tracy | $4,145,964 | $3,000,559 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Juliana Stratton | $5,906,599 | $4,798,641 | $9,082,588 | $10,489,101 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
