Forecasted Win Probability
Jim Risch*
Todd Achilles
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Todd Achilles | 45.50% |
| Jim Risch | 39.40% |
| Other Option | 10.60% |
| Matt Loesby | 4.50% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 52.00% |
| Todd Achilles | 18.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
| Natalie Fleming | 9.00% |
| Matt Loesby | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 32.00% |
| Todd Achilles | 30.00% |
| Matt Loesby | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jim Risch | $4,431,093 | $3,089,996 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jim Risch | $3,937,857 | $2,402,936 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
 Todd Achilles | $692,245 | $506,311 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
