Forecasted Win Probability
Russ Fulcher*
Kaylee Peterson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Russ Fulcher | 45.00% |
| Kaylee Peterson | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Sarah Zabel | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kaylee Peterson | $271,611 | $253,296 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
| Russell Fulcher | $662,615 | $597,924 | $6,339 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
