Forecasted Win Probability
Ed Case*
Adriel Lam
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jarrett Keohokalole | 47.00% |
| Ed Case | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Other Option | 42.00% |
| Ed Case | 33.00% |
| Jarrett Keohokalole | 25.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ed Case | $1,093,795 | $810,804 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/19/2026 |
