Forecasted Win Probability
Rich McCormick*
Tony Kozycki
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tony Kozycki | 47.00% |
| Rich McCormick | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rich McCormick | 46.00% |
| Tony Kozycki | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tony Kozycki | $883,487 | $200,105 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Rich McCormick | $1,642,413 | $1,332,251 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
