Forecasted Win Probability
Brian Jack*
Maura Keller
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Jack | 50.00% |
| Maura Keller | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maura Keller | $150,514 | $62,958 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Brian Jack | $2,045,913 | $1,143,464 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
