Forecasted Win Probability
Dan Green
Darren Soto*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Dan Green | 41.00% |
| Darren Soto | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Darren Soto | $3,464,996 | $2,137,323 | $18 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Dan Green | $2,187,322 | $1,671,486 | $27,330 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
