Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Haridopolos*
Jennifer Jenkins
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Haridopolos | 51.00% |
| Jennifer Jenkins | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Haridopolos | 44.00% |
| Jennifer Jenkins | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Haridopolos | 44.00% |
| Jennifer Jenkins | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jennifer Jenkins | $725,731 | $617,619 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Mike Haridopolos | $1,824,838 | $885,224 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Jennifer Jenkins | $697,539 | $564,774 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
