Forecasted Win Probability
Carlos Gimenez*
Phil Ehr
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Carlos Gimenez | 46.00% |
| Hector Mujica | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carlos Gimenez | $601,254 | $484,409 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Phil Ehr | $291,398 | $625 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
