Forecasted Win Probability
Jared Moskowitz*
Scott Singer
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Oliver Larkin | 43.00% |
| George Moraitis | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 23.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jared Moskowitz | 40.00% |
| George Moraitis | 39.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jared Moskowitz | $2,998,428 | $1,465,081 | $559,574 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Scott Singer | $2,245,960 | $1,779,741 | $904,809 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
