Forecasted Win Probability
Casey Askar
Pia Dandiya
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Pia Dandiya | 46.00% |
| Casey Askar | 44.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Casey Askar | 50.00% |
| Pia Dandiya | 50.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Belinda Keiser | 46.00% |
| Pia Dandiya | 45.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pia Dandiya | $2,284,052 | $987,368 | $2,150 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Casey Askar | $2,567,760 | $1,519,364 | - | $704,806 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
