Forecasted Win Probability
Austin Rogers
Amanda Green
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Keith Gross | 62.20% |
| Yen Bailey | 35.10% |
| Other Option | 2.70% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amanda Green | $348,120 | $320,082 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Austin Rogers | $1,010,277 | $623,248 | $1,386,340 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
