Forecasted Win Probability
Sydney Gruters
Kelly Kirschner
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sydney Gruters | 43.00% |
| Kelly Kirschner | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kelly Kirschner | 40.00% |
| Sydney Gruters | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kelly Kirschner | $296,507 | $215,769 | $10 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
 Sydney Gruters | $1,087,683 | $465,301 | $1,635,707 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
